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diff --git a/ORAL_A_V5.md b/ORAL_A_V5.md index c00e751..01a8ffa 100644 --- a/ORAL_A_V5.md +++ b/ORAL_A_V5.md @@ -99,3 +99,27 @@ the frozen local causal-fit confidence criterion is met. Its exact cadence, confidence threshold, learning rates, cost gate, and accuracy gate must be fixed before any task endpoint is run. +## Audited outcome (2026-08-06) + +V5-1 fails its causal-capture gate on clean source revision `6405220`. All +mechanical and accounting checks pass: the run is finite, uses exactly 380 +edge events, 760 logical batch-loss queries, and 48,640 per-example causal +observations; forward parameters, BatchNorm state, and optimizer state remain +bitwise unchanged; feedback norms stay in `[0.8778, 1.0036]` relative to their +forward counterparts. + +The causal observations contain useful but depth-limited information. Mean +all-layer teaching alignment rises from fixed HFA's `0.011279` to `0.086687`, +and the five latest hidden populations reach per-layer alignments +`0.1992, 0.1397, 0.2924, 0.3837, 0.3418`. However, early-third alignment is +only `0.001147`, far below the frozen `0.10` threshold and only `0.001411` +above fixed HFA. Mean feedback/forward parameter cosine is just `0.013162`. +Thus the signal improves layers close to the output but does not identify a +deep feedback chain at this budget. + +No task-accuracy run, validation endpoint, test example, extra sweep, or rate +recovery is opened. V5 is closed and the reviewer score remains 5/10 for the +standalone no-KP scaling claim. A later branch may test a genuinely staged +scheme that brings each child edge to a causal-fit confidence threshold before +unlocking its parent; it must be treated as a new mechanism rather than a V5 +schedule rescue. |