results: reject one-epoch affine advantage across seeds

1 files changed, 19 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
index 796f36e..eaefe87 100644
--- a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
+++ b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
@@ -105,3 +105,22 @@ R1 setting: affine SDIL is 1.50 percentage points below the matched local
 intercept and 3.65 points below the oracle. The state-dependent result must
 therefore be treated as unconfirmed until a paired multi-seed accuracy study
 shows otherwise. No residual-bias diagnostic can override this endpoint.
+
+## R2 paired-seed accuracy check
+
+R2 repeated the state-dependent cadence-10 comparison for four network
+initializations while keeping the data split and every other R1 setting fixed.
+The paired holdout accuracies were:
+
+| seed | intercept-only | affine SDIL | SDIL minus intercept |
+|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| 1988 | 43.85% | 42.35% | -1.50 points |
+| 1989 | 42.45% | 38.60% | -3.85 points |
+| 1990 | 36.65% | 36.10% | -0.55 points |
+| 1991 | 48.30% | 47.75% | -0.55 points |
+| mean | 42.81% | 41.20% | -1.61 points |
+
+Affine SDIL lost all four paired comparisons. The one-epoch state-dependent
+claim is therefore negative. The remaining accuracy question is whether the
+affine predictor needs a longer trajectory to learn the state relation; R3
+tests that question on full-data ten-epoch trajectories.