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Diffstat (limited to 'RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md')
| -rw-r--r-- | RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md | 19 |
1 files changed, 19 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md index 796f36e..eaefe87 100644 --- a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md +++ b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md @@ -105,3 +105,22 @@ R1 setting: affine SDIL is 1.50 percentage points below the matched local intercept and 3.65 points below the oracle. The state-dependent result must therefore be treated as unconfirmed until a paired multi-seed accuracy study shows otherwise. No residual-bias diagnostic can override this endpoint. + +## R2 paired-seed accuracy check + +R2 repeated the state-dependent cadence-10 comparison for four network +initializations while keeping the data split and every other R1 setting fixed. +The paired holdout accuracies were: + +| seed | intercept-only | affine SDIL | SDIL minus intercept | +|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 1988 | 43.85% | 42.35% | -1.50 points | +| 1989 | 42.45% | 38.60% | -3.85 points | +| 1990 | 36.65% | 36.10% | -0.55 points | +| 1991 | 48.30% | 47.75% | -0.55 points | +| mean | 42.81% | 41.20% | -1.61 points | + +Affine SDIL lost all four paired comparisons. The one-epoch state-dependent +claim is therefore negative. The remaining accuracy question is whether the +affine predictor needs a longer trajectory to learn the state relation; R3 +tests that question on full-data ten-epoch trajectories. |