results: reject four-probe OLS SDIL across seeds

1 files changed, 19 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
index adb6749..c894f3a 100644
--- a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
+++ b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
@@ -203,3 +203,22 @@ Least-squares SDIL wins all four equal-budget comparisons. At four probes it
 recovers 45.35% versus 41.30% for the tracker and a 46.00% clean/oracle
 reference from R1. This is positive development evidence, not confirmation;
 the four-probe point is frozen for the next paired-seed check.
+
+## R7 frozen four-probe seed check
+
+R7 repeated the selected four-probe least-squares setting for four paired
+initializations. Holdout accuracy was:
+
+| seed | intercept tracker | least-squares SDIL | SDIL minus intercept |
+|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| 1988 | 41.30% | 45.35% | +4.05 points |
+| 1989 | 31.85% | 30.45% | -1.40 points |
+| 1990 | 34.50% | 33.10% | -1.40 points |
+| 1991 | 46.40% | 44.20% | -2.20 points |
+| mean | 38.51% | 38.28% | -0.24 points |
+
+The selected result does not replicate: least-squares SDIL loses three of the
+four pairs and is lower on average. The per-update correction diagnostic is
+small in every seed, but that diagnostic cannot override downstream accuracy.
+R7 therefore rejects the four-upfront-probe claim and closes this predictor
+setting rather than promoting the favorable seed-1988 development result.