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Diffstat (limited to 'RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md')
| -rw-r--r-- | RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md | 19 |
1 files changed, 19 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md index adb6749..c894f3a 100644 --- a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md +++ b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md @@ -203,3 +203,22 @@ Least-squares SDIL wins all four equal-budget comparisons. At four probes it recovers 45.35% versus 41.30% for the tracker and a 46.00% clean/oracle reference from R1. This is positive development evidence, not confirmation; the four-probe point is frozen for the next paired-seed check. + +## R7 frozen four-probe seed check + +R7 repeated the selected four-probe least-squares setting for four paired +initializations. Holdout accuracy was: + +| seed | intercept tracker | least-squares SDIL | SDIL minus intercept | +|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 1988 | 41.30% | 45.35% | +4.05 points | +| 1989 | 31.85% | 30.45% | -1.40 points | +| 1990 | 34.50% | 33.10% | -1.40 points | +| 1991 | 46.40% | 44.20% | -2.20 points | +| mean | 38.51% | 38.28% | -0.24 points | + +The selected result does not replicate: least-squares SDIL loses three of the +four pairs and is lower on average. The per-update correction diagnostic is +small in every seed, but that diagnostic cannot override downstream accuracy. +R7 therefore rejects the four-upfront-probe claim and closes this predictor +setting rather than promoting the favorable seed-1988 development result. |