exp: move released-profile screen to centered EP

1 files changed, 15 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
index 1b46f1e..c5bed5e 100644
--- a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
+++ b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md
@@ -66,3 +66,18 @@ had a slightly lower residual (`7.42e-3` versus `7.55e-3`) but lower accuracy
 so R0 is ambiguous negative development evidence and is not promoted. The
 stable centered-EP backbone identified by C0 is required before further task
 confirmation.
+
+The paper-facing decision is based on downstream accuracy, not residual-bias
+diagnostics. Reinterpreted on that basis, R0 supplies one positive cadence
+(49.9% affine versus 44.8% intercept at cadence 10) and one negative cadence
+(47.1% versus 48.4% at cadence 50). This cadence sensitivity and the single
+unstable positive-EP run make R0 inconclusive rather than a mechanism gate.
+
+## R1 centered-EP screen
+
+R1 freezes cadence 10 from the only positive R0 downstream comparison and
+moves to the stable centered estimator. On the same 10,000/2,000 development
+split, one epoch compares centered clean, fixed raw/intercept/SDIL, released-
+profile raw/intercept/SDIL, and a released-profile oracle. Downstream holdout
+accuracy is the only selection endpoint. Residual diagnostics are retained
+only to catch implementation errors.