analysis: localize early-layer feedback bottlenecks

1 files changed, 12 insertions, 2 deletions

diff --git a/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json b/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json
index 5239e8b..1b142df 100644
--- a/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json
+++ b/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json
@@ -44,14 +44,17 @@
     "target_power_growth_epoch1_to_87": 2126827049.3932126
   },
   "diagnosis": {
-    "classification": "unit_target_regression_snr_inadequate_before_runaway",
+    "classification": "early_credit_limited_by_estimator_efficiency_and_feedback_capacity",
     "evidence": [
       "instantaneous prediction-target cosine remains effectively zero",
       "calibration MSE remains indistinguishable from stochastic target power",
       "target power grows by orders of magnitude before nonfiniteness",
-      "matched frozen-forward unit targets later yield only 0.0011 early-layer alignment"
+      "matched frozen-forward unit targets later yield only 0.0011 early-layer alignment",
+      "structured learning reaches 0.0072 versus a 0.0240 cross-validated family oracle",
+      "unconstrained coefficients raise the same spatial basis oracle only to 0.0549"
     ],
     "interpretation_limit": "instantaneous target metrics alone do not prove zero conditional learning; structured v2 has low instantaneous cosine yet positive exact-gradient alignment",
+    "next_design_constraint": "do not add the tested naive local-average/channel-mean bases; improve causal sample efficiency and use a more informative hierarchical or high-level contextual feedback signal",
     "next_test_outcome": "representable-subspace perturbation improved exact alignment but failed the frozen early-layer causal-capture gate"
   },
   "frozen_outcome": {
@@ -72,6 +75,12 @@
       "loss": null
     }
   },
+  "post_failure_representation_refinement": {
+    "channel_gated_cv_oracle_early_third_alignment": 0.02396580002561188,
+    "naive_local_context_cv_early_third_alignment": 0.022457713873793972,
+    "per_example_spatial_oracle_early_third_alignment": 0.05494018487684554,
+    "trained_structured_early_third_alignment": 0.007209055746595065
+  },
   "post_failure_v2_refinement": {
     "structured_all_layer_alignment": 0.05273995646520665,
     "structured_early_third_alignment": 0.007209055746595065,
@@ -93,6 +102,7 @@
   "source_paths": {
     "full": "results/oral_a_dev/sdil_full_r20_s0.json",
     "gate": "results/oral_a_full_gate.json",
+    "representation": "results/oral_a_representation_diagnosis.json",
     "short": "results/oral_a_short/sdil_channel_gated_lr0.03.json",
     "v2_gate": "results/oral_a_v2_calibration_gate.json"
   }