diff options
Diffstat (limited to 'results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json')
| -rw-r--r-- | results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json | 14 |
1 files changed, 12 insertions, 2 deletions
diff --git a/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json b/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json index 5239e8b..1b142df 100644 --- a/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json +++ b/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json @@ -44,14 +44,17 @@ "target_power_growth_epoch1_to_87": 2126827049.3932126 }, "diagnosis": { - "classification": "unit_target_regression_snr_inadequate_before_runaway", + "classification": "early_credit_limited_by_estimator_efficiency_and_feedback_capacity", "evidence": [ "instantaneous prediction-target cosine remains effectively zero", "calibration MSE remains indistinguishable from stochastic target power", "target power grows by orders of magnitude before nonfiniteness", - "matched frozen-forward unit targets later yield only 0.0011 early-layer alignment" + "matched frozen-forward unit targets later yield only 0.0011 early-layer alignment", + "structured learning reaches 0.0072 versus a 0.0240 cross-validated family oracle", + "unconstrained coefficients raise the same spatial basis oracle only to 0.0549" ], "interpretation_limit": "instantaneous target metrics alone do not prove zero conditional learning; structured v2 has low instantaneous cosine yet positive exact-gradient alignment", + "next_design_constraint": "do not add the tested naive local-average/channel-mean bases; improve causal sample efficiency and use a more informative hierarchical or high-level contextual feedback signal", "next_test_outcome": "representable-subspace perturbation improved exact alignment but failed the frozen early-layer causal-capture gate" }, "frozen_outcome": { @@ -72,6 +75,12 @@ "loss": null } }, + "post_failure_representation_refinement": { + "channel_gated_cv_oracle_early_third_alignment": 0.02396580002561188, + "naive_local_context_cv_early_third_alignment": 0.022457713873793972, + "per_example_spatial_oracle_early_third_alignment": 0.05494018487684554, + "trained_structured_early_third_alignment": 0.007209055746595065 + }, "post_failure_v2_refinement": { "structured_all_layer_alignment": 0.05273995646520665, "structured_early_third_alignment": 0.007209055746595065, @@ -93,6 +102,7 @@ "source_paths": { "full": "results/oral_a_dev/sdil_full_r20_s0.json", "gate": "results/oral_a_full_gate.json", + "representation": "results/oral_a_representation_diagnosis.json", "short": "results/oral_a_short/sdil_channel_gated_lr0.03.json", "v2_gate": "results/oral_a_v2_calibration_gate.json" } |